Michael Sheetz

This week in SitRep: The outcome of the U.S. Presidential election will have profound consequences for the major crises roiling the globe today. Most immediately, here’s what the election could mean for the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. https://lnkd.in/ePihpdPy

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Tension between Congress and the Pentagon about the retirement of legacy platforms is one of the major obstacles in the U.S.’s effort to meet the pacing threat, and it’s one of my interests as a national security journalist and now strategic adviser to defense tech companies. In a big piece for The Wall Street Journal about fate of the A-10s last year, I wrote that the Air Force wanted to retire the planes because they wouldn’t last in a fight with a peer adversary, but Congress continued to spend about half a billion dollars a year on the platform in deference to members whose constituencies depended on the A-10 for jobs and the flow of federal tax dollars. https://lnkd.in/eE3nKnAW "This kind of intervention is common—and is impairing the U.S.’s ability to respond to rapidly modernizing Chinese forces in a new era of great-power competition, say current and former senior defense officials and military analysts,” I wrote. The Air Force ultimately won the A-10 fight, after promising to bring new programs to Davis-Monthan Air Force base in Arizona to replace the Warthog after its gradual retirement. This week, in its long-awaited report the Commission on the National Defense Strategy this week recommended “DoD should immediately review all major systems against likely future needs, emphasizing battlefield utility and prioritizing agility, interoperability, and survivability.” Meanwhile, the House’s draft defense appropriation bill for FY2025 bars the Air Force from retiring the U-2 spy planes, severely restricts the force from retiring older F-15s, and forces the Navy to keep sailing its flawed Littoral Combat Ships. The U-2s are on average 40 years old. It’s a cool plane, but the Air Force is spending about $360 million per year on O&M to keep those 27 airframes up and flying, plus another few dozen million on mods. The House defense appropriations subcommittee writes, “The Committee’s prioritization of innovation aims to deliver acquisition solutions faster to rapidly field capabilities to the warfighter.” Yet they want to keep 27 Cold War-era spy planes in the air when they could be spending that money on space systems, commercial imagery, unmanned ISR, and much more?

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I think the biggest problem for WashPo is that its core journalistic focus -- Washington politics -- is just too oversaturated as a beat. I mean, can anyone honestly say at this point that we lack for political news in this country? Too many smaller, more nimble media outlets have entered the fray, to the point where WashPo would struggle to differentiate its offering even if it managed to hold on to its top talent. Not only does public interest in politics wax and wane depending on whether it's an election year, but brands are increasingly uninterested in advertising against that sort of content. When you add all this together, then it's no wonder that the paper has been losing money for years. If Bezos truly wants the paper to compete at the national level, then he needs to seriously invest in diversifying its coverage areas well beyond Washington. That means expanding its teams covering tech, fashion, finance, gaming, and entertainment. It means placing more reporters in important regional hubs all around the world. It means launching other verticals outside of news -- just as The New York Times heavily invested in its gaming, recipes, and product review content. That's not to say the paper should completely abandon its Washington roots -- in fact, its coverage of the White House and Capitol Hill will continue to be its biggest calling card -- but it seems pretty clear to me that political coverage alone won't dig it out of its current hole.

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Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's nominee to serve as Director of National Intelligence, is on capitol hill this week for meeting with lawmakers. She holds some of the most controversial foreign-policy views among Trump’s picks to serve in top national security roles, having consistently echoed unevidenced Russian talking points about the wars in Syria and Ukraine. Her potential elevation to serve as the most senior intelligence officer in the country raises some fundamental questions: What does Tulsi Gabbard really believe, and where does she get her information? I try to answer them in this profile. https://lnkd.in/eszRrqXr

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This week, I attended the Outrider Foundation’s 2024 Nuclear Reporting Summit in DC. Over two days, an impressive array of journalists, experts and activists discussed the current state of nuclear weapons modernization, nuclear posture under Trump 2, the intersecting risks of climate change, AI, and nuclear threats, and more. Here are my key takeaways: 💡 Nuclear testing risks everyone. Nuclear fallout from past tests affected 46 states, Canada, and Mexico, as shown by Sébastien Philippe's research using NOAA weather data to model the Nevada test site detonations (https://lnkd.in/gmkktkEU). NYT correspondent WJ Hennigan warns of a return to nuclear weapons testing under Trump 2. The memories of downwinders are more salient now than ever. I documented Marshallese nuclear survivors’ stories last year — this work is only becoming more urgent (https://lnkd.in/gTyQEdvg). 💡 We need new nuclear language. Nuclear risk runs high, maybe higher than we know, but the language we are using to describe current nuclear events is either outdated or inaccurate, creating false perceptions. Cold War words like “Arms race” fails to address that nuclear modernization efforts today depend on quality over quantity, while the US' nearly $2 trillion nuclear weapons production program was strategically named the “modernization” program by the military to give a false sense of inspiration and security. It puts target communities and silo workers at risk, as Alex Ruiz of Torchlight Initiative highlighted cancer clusters among Minuteman III crews (https://lnkd.in/gARgu4Am). 💡 Existential risks are intersectional. Climate change and AI amplify nuclear threats. AI server hubs will now be hosted at reopened nuclear reactor sites, including Three Mile Island, infamous for its 1979 meltdown. 💡 There are impressive efforts for justice. Groups like Just Moms STL and Torchlight are fighting to revive the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act with broader coverage. Resources: 💡 Conference programming and speaker list: https://lnkd.in/gJvaqVjp  💡 Nuclear expert source list: https://lnkd.in/gkDc5Nzw And for more, I recommend: 💡 Inkstick Media's report on Northrop Grumman covering up worker deaths (https://lnkd.in/gU9mNztW) 💡 The New York Times’s At The Brink series (https://lnkd.in/gvVh3D3e) 💡The Missiles on Our Land project (https://lnkd.in/gzY6vP26) 💡And always, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (my next piece coming soon!)

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New at S&P Global Market Intelligence: I sat down with Vijay Balasubramaniyan of Pindrop to discuss the importance of detecting AI-generated deepfakes, and how Pindrop’s work is supporting journalists, election officials and law enforcement looking to sort fact from fiction online. https://lnkd.in/g5UiYUQ6

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Coming in Sunday's Spokesman-Review... A 24-page special section containing 21 of my Further Review pages about elections, the history of elections, how the three branches of U.S. government work -- or, in some cases, how they DON'T work. And two pages promoting my book. Unless I'm mistaken, this will be the first mention in the paper of my upcoming Further Review hardcover book. I'm writing a sales pitch, how I converted newspaper pages into book pages and how to order. That will be on pages 2 and 3. But pages 4 through 24 will be an enormous, graphics-laden civics lesson! A few of the topics we'll be covering... > A history of broken campaign promises > Presidential approval ratings going back to WW2 > A history of -- and a look inside -- the White House > How the Electoral College works > The nature of complaints about the 2020 election results > The closest elections in U.S. history > What to expect on election night 2024 > The Presidential veto > America's spending habit > A history of Presidential health issues > The eight Presidents who died in office > The history of the Capitol > How the House is apportioned > Which party has been in control of the House and the Senate since 1900 > How much actual legislative work Congress has done > The Senate Filibuster -- how it works and how often it's been used > Voter turnout in the U.S. > Who appointed our Supreme Court justices > Why "Court Packing" didn't work for FDR in 1938 > The nature of Fake News All these pages have run in the Spokesman-Review over the past 5.5 years. Some required very little tweaking to bring them up to date. Others had to be rebuilt from scratch. If you're wondering how and why I've injured my wrist lately... well, this is a big reason. But, y'know, I think it's worth it. I'm awfully proud of the book. But this section, I feel, contains some of the very best work of my career. At some point, I'm told, the folks in Spokane will allow you to order two or three copies of this section. I'll post instructions when I get them. Man! This has been a BUSY fall!

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The US army size, military resources and diplomatic clout are vast - but also finite. In this feature, I analyse how the US continues to battle on so many geopolitical fronts, from Ukraine, to the Middle East, to the Indo-Pacific, asking: is there a breaking point? Words and map of US troop deployment abroad by me. Additional analysis from Christopher Granville and Carolina Pinto. https://lnkd.in/eJBxBC6A

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Now available On Demand

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Clean air, fishing boats, and truck stops sound more like parts of a summer vacation than anything to do with financial services, but these are the root issues of a few US Supreme Court judgements made earlier this month that have piled pressure on the Securities and Exchange Commission. Since then I've been talking to lawyers, compliance professionals and former SEC employees to work out how and to what extent the regulator is affected by SCOTUS' judgments on Chevron, Jarkesy, and Corner Post. My latest for WatersTechnology.com. Check it out below! 🗞 🔽

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Newsguard Under FCC Chair Carr Microscope ~ Newsguard ‘arbiter of truth’ services at the intersection of technology, media, advertising and marketing to be examined central to censorship of SM users. Carr issued a letter to Meta, Apple, Alphabet (Google) and Microsoft; instructing production of documents relevant to sale or use of Newsguard services. Zuckerberg hits up Trump for meet up at Mar a Lago Wednesday night, navigating tenuous path forward considering prior choices. He is very late to game changing environment. His recent and last salvo was to implicate Biden Administration. Carr has posited Section 230 protection dependent on ‘good faith’ practices. Post X.com v GARM victory and advertising cartel GARM folding, major advertisers are returning to use X.com: IBM, Comcast, Disney, WarnerBros, Discovery and Lionsgate. GARM influence strangled Ad spend on X.com post Elon Musk purchase of platform from $170M in first three quarters of 2023 compared to $3.3M in same period in 2024. This impact threatened to fiscally undermine X.com business model. Elon Musk’s commitment to fostering 1st Amendment despite these formidable obstacles has single handed delivered life support to Westphalian Civilization. #worldnews #censorship #media #journalism #advertising #technology #ceo #founders #boardroom #skynewsaustralia #dailymail #asahishimbun #israel https://lnkd.in/gUz9EDB9

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Read what experts like Prof. Ahmed Banafa and Pranava Adduri say about SB 1047

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I was on CNN's 5 Things podcast yesterday discussing my story that explores which jobs are most vulnerable under the next Trump administration. (I come in at the 2:15 mark.) For a deeper dive, check out my full story featuring insights from Harry Holzer of Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy and The Brookings Institution as well as Giacomo Santangelo from Monster. https://lnkd.in/eHd3QDEc #economy #economynews #labormarket #trumpeconomy #trumpjobs

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For critics, the deployment of such technologies is part of a long march, a stealth encroachment on constitutional rights that has accelerated in the years since 9/11... https://lnkd.in/gzxrRd3q

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https://lnkd.in/dNQp8S2A "Given the Conservatives’ support for national sovereignty and distaste for political utopias, we might imagine that they would be exclusively hostile to these kinds of radical ideas. That was not the case. While there were those who bemoaned these ‘brave new worlders’, others were more sympathetic and put forward bold ideas of the future. Alongside support for European political integration and a revived League of Nations, some even supported the most utopian idea of the era: world government."

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Just published: H-Diplo|RJISSF Roundtable Review 16-21 on Rachel E. Whitlark's _All Options on the Table: Leaders, Preventive War, and Nuclear Proliferation_. Cornell University Press, 2021. https://lnkd.in/eq5PjWZn    Introduction by Matthew Fuhrmann, Texas A&M University Reviews by Debak Das, University of Denver Raymond Kuo, RAND Corporation Sanne Cornelia J. Verschuren, Boston University Response by Rachel Whitlark, Georgia Institute of Technology   From the introduction: Rachel Whitlark’s _All Options on the Table: Leaders, Preventive War, and Nuclear Proliferation_ brings together two critical areas of international relations research: nuclear politics and the role of individual leaders. After the Cold War ended, many historians and political scientists turned their attention away from nuclear weapons—and even, for a few years, from international security more generally. During this period, the study of leadership in international relations was also largely dormant, as most scholars focused on structural forces or domestic institutions. More recently, both areas have seen a revival in scholarship.[1] Whitlark’s book is notable for making key contributions in both domains, teaching us much about the intersection of nuclear politics and leaders. The book explains when and why world leaders consider and use military force to stop the international spread of nuclear weapons. This issue is certainly timely. For more than 20 years, policymakers in Israel, the United States, and elsewhere have called for preventive strikes against Iran to delay Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Yet we have seen variation in the intensity with which leaders have pursued the military option. The United States and Israel have taken various actions against Iran’s nuclear program, including the Stuxnet cyberattack, but neither has launched conventional airstrikes. With a focus on the beliefs of individual leaders, Whitlark’s book helps us understand why the situation has played out in this manner. All Options on the Table has much to offer: a compelling argument; a well-thought-out qualitative research design; substantial archival evidence; and key implications for theory and policy. The reviewers of this roundtable highlight the book’s many strengths. Sanne Cornelia J. Verschuren writes that it, “deserves praise for identifying a precise set of beliefs that determines leaders’ preferences for preventive war.” Debak Das underscores that “the book adds depth and nuance to the literature on leaders and their role in international security outcomes.” Echoing this sentiment, Raymond Kuo states, “the book does what all great social science should do.”...

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