Paul McDonald

AI memory is fundamental for conversational AI and AI agents. It is critical for building personalized experiences and improving reasoning. Check out Letta’s course to understand how to use AI memory to enhance the customization and quality of your AI app.

15

ex Google CEO Eric Schmidt spoke at Stanford this week. Lots of nuggets here, but most interesting for the near term, Schmidt believes in the next year AI is set to make a big leap forward. He predicts AI will combine three important features: 1. Vast knowledge retention (1 million token models) 2. Text-to-action capability 3. Personal AI agent fleets While the full impact is unknown, everyone may soon command their own AI teams. Here's an example: Imagine you're developing new quantum computing algorithms. Your AI assistants could: - Continuously scan and synthesize global quantum research papers - Generate novel algorithm ideas based on this knowledge - Simulate and test these algorithms across various quantum architectures - Automatically document findings and prepare draft papers - Identify potential collaborators and draft outreach emails All initiated by a command like "Advance our quantum algorithm research." This could dramatically accelerate R&D cycles and scientific breakthroughs.. https://lnkd.in/eJbg6cnD #frontiertech #AI #futurefrontier

22

9 Comments

At Forum we look at thousands of deals each year across our Accelerator and Pre-Seed funds but only end up investing in a little over 1% of those startups.  As an early stage VC, I am in the business of saying no to nearly every startup I meet, and while there is nuanced rationale for many of the startups I pass on, a vast majority of businesses that don’t meet the qualification to get funded typically fall into one of two buckets. ▪ First time founders have a tendency to go out to market too early to raise pre-seed capital ▪   I’m sure most founders have heard some iteration of this from VCs that ultimately pass on their business.  In some cases it's a blanket excuse covering up for other pass reasons- perhaps a VC doesn’t believe in a team or isn’t bullish on the market opportunity - but in many cases founders simply haven't proven enough to the market to warrant an investment. I meet many teams with an articulate vision for the product that they want to build, but they either haven't performed enough customer discovery to prove demand for their initial wedge product, or need to raise pre-seed capital to build out an MVP.  In those cases, pre-seed investors are unwilling to underwrite those risks.  To be default fundable, teams need to be able to keep costs low, perform extensive customer discovery, and ship some version of an early product - pilots and early paid customers are key. A huge piece of this is having founding engineering talent on the team. ▪Not every startup is a venture opportunity ▪ By definition, a venture backed business is solving a problem within a market opportunity so massive and so desperately needed, that its growth rate is off the charts.   It spreads like a weed, absorbing almost unlimited amounts of capital to fulfill demand within its customer base.   Each year there are maybe 20 companies launched that ultimately have venture scale outcomes. The bar to reach this rarified air is unfathomably high and the reality is the vast majority of founders simply aren’t building for opportunities that have the potential to be one of these generational companies. Many startup founders view VC as the only viable option for capitalizing their business, but not every great business is a venture business, and most successful founders never take VC dollars.  In order to reach an IPO/acquisition large enough to generate venture returns, a startup needs a credible path to $100s of millions in revenue. This is the standard by which early stage opportunities are evaluated. The flip side to this, and I share this feedback often with founders I meet that are building interesting business in non venture markets, if you are able to scale to $10- $20M in revenue that can be a massively successful outcome for a founder.  There are investors who focus on these type outcomes, namely lower middle market PE shops, and the typical path to those deals is a bootstrapped business or a friends/family capital raise.

97

13 Comments

Instacart is a market leader when it comes to leveraging AI tools to boost productivity at work. I had an amazing conversation with JJ Zhuang, Instacart’s Chief Architect, who has shepherded over 50 AI-driven initiatives to market across the org. We explored what catapulted Instacart to the forefront of AI integration, supporting radically diverse use cases across various functional areas. One striking insight (echoed by Ethan Mollick and others elsewhere) is that you often don't need specialized tools for specialized work. Frontier models like GPT-4 can seamlessly adapt to a wide range of functions and use cases. They're not just for engineers; they're incredibly versatile tools used by marketing, comms, and legal teams. From generating code to proofreading and ideation, GPT-4 empowers every department to leverage AI for enhanced productivity and innovation. By integrating LLM’s like GPT-4 into their workflows, teams can streamline processes, automate repetitive tasks, and unlock bandwidth for new creative possibilities. How can you harness the power of AI in your own work to boost productivity? Share your thoughts below 👇 Want to hear more insights from JJ? Check out the full podcast episode by clicking the link in the comments.

8

2 Comments

Insightful breakdown from my great Partner Omri Amirav-Drory on the simple factors that really separate the top 1% of investors from the rest, and how more operators should become investors! https://lnkd.in/gEiZdT2h

16

3 Comments

Big announcement below! 👇 Let's talk about the current state of GP-LP affairs: 🤯Emerging VC managers have absolutely exploded over the past 5 years. 📈 At the same time, more and more data has surfaced that shows that emerging VC firms tend to outperform larger, established firms. 🤔 All of this has made it intriguing but tough for LPs to know where to direct their attention. 🛍 GPs frequently meet LPs at conferences who are window shopping but not committed to the asset class or emerging managers. 🧾 And both crews get overwhelmed by transactional convos. So Sydney Paige Thomas and I created Abundance. Abundance is a private, nomination-based retreat for active LPs and top emerging GPs to form new experiences together and build lasting relationships. Why Abundance? Abundance is knowing that there is more than enough for more than one to succeed. And a single win within a community is a win for the community itself. The journey of an emerging VC manager from 1st close to final close or Fund 1 to Fund 2 is (1) communal and (2) requires an abundant mindset. LPs look for structure and confidence to feel comfortable investing in early VC firms. Yet many of the feeds we scroll and conferences we attend reinforce inherent power dynamics and transactional thinking, which allows scarcity mindset to creep in for emerging GPs. Some of the best events I’ve attended have been intentionally non-transactional, e.g. Camp Hustle, Recast Summit, and other GPs’ AGMs. The fundraising success stories we see usually involve a community (usually of other GPs & LPs) coming together to support and open doors for the emerging GP. We designed Abundance to be an immersive gathering that fosters these connections. Starting tonight, ~100 GPs and LPs are descending upon Seattle for the inaugural Abundance retreat. This has been under wraps for months and I can’t wait to see it come to life! Thanks in advance to our awesome sponsors who were the earliest believers in this vision: Sydecar, Amazon Web Services (AWS), Gunderson Dettmer, & Zelda Ventures. And shoutout to my dad Ed Illig for logo design & Halle Kaplan-Allen being the first sponsor to say yes 🤩 Presented by The Council Capital & Symphonic Capital.

130

32 Comments

Was chatting with another investor today on a call, and mentioned Tim Urban's Wait But Why Blog post, "The AI Revolution" and how prescient it was. Given that it was written in 2015, decided to flex AI's latest muscles to give it a new venue: a podcast. Podcast here: https://lnkd.in/gW8Dh89U Pretty easy to do: Step 1: Save the posts as PDFs. Step 2: Upload to NotebookLM, have it create a podcast. Step 3: Upload to Descript, give it captions. Step 4: Export, publish to Youtube. Total time to create the podcast: ~25 minutes. To generate this podcast and publish it even a few years ago would have taken >8 hours. Love the future (Original posts: https://lnkd.in/gW-PQXE7, https://lnkd.in/gg-nRvxz) #AIRevolution #GenerativeAI #WaitButWhy #TimUrban #NotebookLM #AIContentCreation #Podcasting #Descript #ArtificialIntelligence #ContentFlex #ProductivityHacks #FutureOfAI #AIinMinutes #TechEfficiency #AIandCreativity #YouTubePodcast #InnovationInContent #vibecap #vibecapital

5

Introducing Morfless, one of Antler's up-and-coming startup investments using AI to cut cloud costs. As cloud adoption continues to accelerate, so does the complexity and cost associated with managing cloud infrastructure. Morfless was founded by Ian Corbally and Domagoj Filipovic to address this issue head-on. The duo realised the pressing need for a platform that could automate the tedious tasks involved in managing cloud spend, thereby improving operational efficiency and reducing costs. Over the past 12 months, the startup has made significant strides, successfully developing and launching its AI-powered platform, gaining traction among a wide range of Australian and New Zealand sectors – from the largest national media websites to marketing agencies and software companies. Read more in Startup Daily here: https://lnkd.in/gHFjU_SM

49

9 Comments

During yesterday's LibreQoS APNIC webinar, I posed the question: won't more bandwidth solve these problems? As Herbert Wolverson said, yes, more bandwidth is good, but, still these problems remain if queueing is done incorrectly. Here's my take on why bandwidth alone is not as good as bandwidth + good queueing policies: Generally it was believed that 'data is important, so don't throw it away; hang on to it and send it later'. In practice, this has proven to be suboptimal as two issues may emerge: 1) latency increases for some flows due to heavy demand from other flows using the same bottleneck link, 2) even a single flow can have excessive latency due to aspects of typical TCP behavior (referred to bufferbloat) when the buffers grew large enough that the data being buffered was retransmitted anyway. It turns out that not all data is equally important. Active Queue Management is the art of deciding priorities, both in deciding what data to throw away, but also in allowing some later arriving data to be transmitted ahead of data in another connection that arrived before it. These problems have been studied, and good solutions have been found by using certain queueing policies in routers and switches, referred to as “fq_codel’ and “cake”. These track the different flows not by classifying the data, but by watching the behavior. Flows that send relatively little data (DNS lookups), or at a measured pace (video chat) have priority over flows that send a lot of data as quickly as possible (App and System updates, Video and ISO downloads).

10

5 Comments

VC platform teams rarely add meaningful value to portfolio companies. They’re mostly a tool for GPs to justify raising larger funds and collecting higher management fees.

23

5 Comments

A common mistake early-stage VCs make is confusing good decisions with good outcomes. Good outcomes don’t always mean good decisions—luck often masks flawed reasoning. Focus on process over outcome bias. Invest in strong decision-making frameworks, not just duplicating “wins.”

70

15 Comments

Insightful look into bioplatform strategy, and what it takes to raise a Series A from my partner, Omri Amirav-Drory: https://lnkd.in/dFv7GbF6

20

This week on the Mobile Dev Memo podcast: I speak with Mike Taylor about his new book, Prompt Engineering for Generative AI: Future-Proof Inputs for Reliable AI Outputs, as well as the skill gap in performance marketing. Find the episode by searching for "Mobile Dev Memo" wherever you consume podcasts.

13

I'm really intrigued by this idea (not mine) that some bitcoin mining companies (Iris, Cleanspark, etc) have successfully built low-cost power shells that can now be leveraged by AI compute needs -- where power itself is becoming the gating factor in the continuing growth of AI. I think this will become a real 2025 story -- as the gating factor of "chip shortage" lessens, and the gating factor of "cheap power" rises in significance. There's not really a venture capital angle here, but there is a public market one. Perhaps more importantly, it becomes a touchpoint between "crypto" and AI. Something to ponder and keep an eye on (full disc: I own a bunch of bitcoin miner stocks, including those mentioned above).

9

2 Comments

As we stand on the brink of 2025, the world's technology, infrastructure, AI, Data, Cloud, Crypto, venture and everything else in tech are poised for a transformative year. I am excited to share my predictions for 2025 — insights that I believe will guide us through the next wave of innovations as important as the internet and smartphones. Together, let’s explore the trends that will not only guide and influence our thinking and investment strategies but also inspire us to create a better world through entrepreneurship. Here are a few predictions 💡💡💡: -  Imagine the creation of HealthGPT, BioGPT, NuclearGPT, LogisticsGPT, GovGPT and more - Establishment of a US Bitcoin Reserve by the end of 2025 - SpaceX, OpenAI, Stripe, SHEIN, Databricks, Canvas, Chime, Anduril, and Scale AI are anticipated to go public - 50% of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) new hires are from Silicon Valley. #prediction #2025 #venture #funding #M&A #DOGE #bitcoin #AI #GPT #IPOs #exits #startups #venturecapital #USmarket #databricks #chime #anduril #scaleAI #OpenAI #stripe #spaceX #bytedance #canvas Read more on my Substack  👉 👉 👉

63

3 Comments

"Editors note: Welcome to issue #2 of Transcriptions. Today, we’d like to present a conversation between Qasar Younis of Applied Intuition, and Bilal Zuberi of Lux Capital. We discovered Qasar recently, and find his focus and clarity of thinking to be admirable. What follows is a lightly edited transcript of their talk, first held at the Paklaunch forum." Link to transcipt: https://lnkd.in/gH4uBmPE

12

2 Comments