Mary C. Daly’s Post

Despite the debate, [the] game is over. On Sunday, Iowa lost to South Carolina in the finals and the world moves on. Meanwhile, in the realm of economics, a different debate rages. Is Federal Reserve policy tight, or not? #accounting #stocks #stockmarket #financialadvice #wallstreet #banking #economy #finance #economics #investments

🚀 New Blog Post! 🚀 Explore the remarkable journey of Ben Bernanke, the Great Depression expert who steered the Federal Reserve through the 2008 financial crisis. Learn how his deep knowledge of economic history shaped pivotal monetary policies and helped stabilize the global economy. 📉📈 In this blog, we delve into: Bernanke's early life and education His groundbreaking academic contributions Leadership during the financial crisis His lasting legacy and impact Post-Fed achievements Gain insights into one of the most influential economists of our time. Don't miss out on this comprehensive overview! 🔗 Read more here: https://lnkd.in/gHgkm5Fr

SOME OF THE WALL STREET "WALKERS" ARE RUTHLESS SOCIOPATHS, SOME MAY BE SUICIDAL, SOME OF THEM KNOW THAT THE "INVISIBLE HAND" IS A MAGIC WAND AND ALL OF THEM KNOW THAT DONALD TRUMP IS A CROOK " The best-kept secrets in economics, wrote Jonathan Schlefe in the Harvard Business Review that there is no case for the invisible hand. After more than a century trying to prove the opposite, economic theorists investigating the matter finally concluded in the 1970s that there is no reason to believe markets are led, as if by an invisible hand, to an optimal equilibrium — or any equilibrium at all. But the message never got through to their supposedly practical colleagues who so eagerly push advice about almost anything. Most never even heard what the theorists said, or else resolutely ignored it. Of course, the dynamic but turbulent history of capitalism belies any invisible hand. The financial crisis that erupted in 2008 and the debt crises threatening Europe are just the latest evidence. Having lived in Mexico in the wake of its 1994 crisis and studied its politics, I just saw the absence of any invisible hand as a practical fact. What shocked me, when I later delved into economic theory, was to discover that, at least on this matter, theory supports practical evidence. Adam Smith suggested the invisible hand in an otherwise obscure passage in his Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations in 1776. He mentioned it only once in the book, while he repeatedly noted situations where “natural liberty” does not work. Let banks charge much more than 5% interest, and they will lend to “prodigals and projectors,” precipitating bubbles and crashes. Let “people of the same trade” meet, and their conversation turns to “some contrivance to raise prices.” Let market competition continue to drive the division of labor, and it produces workers as “stupid and ignorant as it is possible for a human creature to become.” https://lnkd.in/dMtqsTRt https://lnkd.in/dVw_zp7s

December 2024 HUGE INSIGHTS: The Big Picture - Issue #40 Into the Storm The latest issue of our HUGE INSIGHTS: The Big Picture investment newsletter is hot off the press. Herein we evaluate macro risks affecting the U.S. economy and markets, and highlight opportunities for profit. In this issue we discuss: The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, and the lessons that history can offer with respect to the current protectionist trade agenda; a deep dive review of current investor sentiment and the implications of the 2025; geopolitics in Asia and Europe and some parallels to the 1930s; and why we think margins are poised to mean revert and the implications for 2025 EPS. https://lnkd.in/g5z4FHyi Read on to learn the details of our current stock market analysis and forecast for the U.S. economy, and see how we are positioning for the first year of the Presidential cycle. As always, we also highlight one very fat pitch stock/ETF idea...So don't miss out! #investmentstrategy #trading #stockmarkets #investing #economics #inflation #deflation #bearmarket #bullmarket #technicalanalysis #elliottwave #globalmacro #earnings #cycles #valuations #analogs #commodities #fundamentalanalysis #gold #silver #kondratieffwave #FX #bitcoin

There are no solutions only tradeoffs… this will be top of mind at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium this week, as economists and policy makers from around the world gather to discuss economic issues, implications, and policy options. Check out the video below for thoughts on how the meeting may unfold. #fedreserv #economy

Insights into operation of the FOMC Bloomberg Host David Rubenstein sits down with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at an Economic Club of Washington luncheon event. The conversation comes less than a week after two days of Congressional testimony from the chair followed by a cooler-than-expected June CPI report, and ahead of another Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at the end of this month. Encouraged by the data and Powell's testimony in which he said he believed inflation is receding, markets are currently pricing in two rate cuts before the end of 2024. FOMC consists of twelve members, seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. Non-voting Reserve Bank presidents attend the meetings of the Committee, participate in the discussions, and contribute to the Committee's assessment of the economy and policy options. The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. Before each meeting Federal Reserve Chair makes scheduled calls to FOMC members to discuss the papers distributed by Federal Reserve for the meeting to draw their take on the key findings including issues raised by member’s own banks economic research analysis work. Powell seeks to carefully listen to their concerns with macro issues impacting the US economy and tries to incorporate them to develop the interest rate response for the FOMC. FOMC has not always got its interest rate decisions correct notwithstanding that it has solid performance track record history one that our own Reserve Bank of Australia could benefit from.

With today’s Federal Reserve decision, the spotlight turns to 2025. Marta Norton, CFA, and Vanessa Welch unpack what it means for markets and investors in today’s #TakingStock.

As the U.S. election approaches, understanding the dynamics between bullish optimism and bearish pessimism is crucial for investors navigating potential market volatility. Our latest Insight, "Bull and Bear Markets: Understanding Potential Election Implications for the Cycle Ahead," delves into the cyclical nature of financial markets and what history reveals about the months ahead. By examining historical trends, your Rockefeller Private Advisor can help you anticipate market movements as the political landscape shifts. Reach out to learn more.

💡In this week's Money with Murphy, CIO Kara Murphy, CFA discusses this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and the difficult trade-offs that define the Fed’s dual mandates, setting the stage for potential shifts in monetary policy that could ripple through markets. Learn more here: https://lnkd.in/gfkZ4Q7Y