Adtech M&A is certainly heating up. Last week Digiday reported that Teads is exploring various sale options. This kind of news piques our Quo Vadis curiosity. So we did our best to puzzle together a fundamental valuation model. As imperfect as it may be, our model tells us that $2.2 billion is close to the magic number. Get the details and see how we get there: https://lnkd.in/ee6wEyXM Subscribe to Quo Vadis to follow this very interesting adtech valuation story! #adtech #programmatic #radicaltransparency
John Porte
9mo
The real question is who has the cash to buy them and doesn’t involve antitrust.
Grant Gudgel
9mo
Great analysis Tom Triscari! To my knowledge many of your assumptions seem indeed directionally accurate if not a bit conservative. The closing commentary on why a TTD / Teads deal would make a lot of sense is something I've thought about, particularly as TTD tries to reposition around "Curated Media". Teads has always positioned as a high-quality "curated garden" that aligns it with current trends toward higher quality supply. When I joined Teads (216 - 2020) I did so in no small part because I knew the fundamentals of the business were solid. It was one of those rare birds that could post market-beating top line CAGR while also delivering a very healthy EBITDA margin. While growth has slowed and there has been some not-insignificant turnover in key roles at the top, the model has worked well for years through a mix of smart/focused strategy and a unique value prop. An interesting question is, why has such a fundamentally attractive business been actively on the market several times but never attracted a buyer? I think your valuation is reasonable but I also think Altice has sought considerably higher multiples in the past which may have turned away would-be buyers. Best of luck to them this time around!
John Porte
8mo
Didn’t see Outbrain as a buyer.
Lana McGilvray
9mo
Smarty party. Love this!
Tom Triscari I look forward to reading another excellent piece by you. The first thing I want to understand is if Teads is like so many other companies seeking M&A exits right now because they are ill prepared to handle the transition off of the 3P cookie. I look at Criteo and see a company that is aggressively exploring alternatives and looking to innovate through the changing times. While M&A can be a solid strategy it can also backfire if the tech assets have fallen behind market needs.